China's pulp import structure changes quietly 0

2022-08-06
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Policies frequently appear and China's pulp import structure changes quietly

release date: Source: zhuochuang paper (Chang Junting) views: 3142 copyright and disclaimer

core tips: China's pulp import continued to grow in the figure, with an average annual growth rate of 8.26%; The average annual growth rate of wood pulp imports is 7.23%, while the average annual growth rate of other pulp imports reaches

; The average annual growth rate of wood pulp import volume is 7.23%, while the average annual growth rate of other pulp import volume is 15.65%, especially the annual growth rate is obvious. In 2019, the import volume of other pulp increased by 25.64% month on month

other pulps include waste pulp and dissolved pulp. It can be seen from the figure that the import volume of waste pulp has continued to increase since 2018. This is due to the intensive introduction of waste paper import policies since 2018. Since march1,2018, the new regulations on waste paper import have been implemented, which clearly stipulate the qualifications of import enterprises and the impurity content of imported waste paper. The size of import waste paper enterprises is required to be more than 50000 tons/year, and the impurity content of imported waste paper is ≤ 0.5%. In june2018, the State Council issued the opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Comprehensively Strengthening Ecological Environmental Protection and firmly fighting a tough battle against pollution, which clearly put forward a comprehensive ban on the entry of foreign garbage, and strive to basically achieve zero import of solid waste medical masks and medical protective clothing textiles by the end of 2020

according to the customs data, the import volume of waste pulp in 2018 was 290000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2371%; In 2019, the import volume of waste pulp was 910000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 209%; In the first five months of 2020, the import volume was 730000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 280% compared with the import volume of waste pulp in the first five months of 2019. In an exclusive interview with Xinhua news agency, the director of the state market supervision and administration has accounted for 80% of the total import volume in 2019. The import volume of waste pulp in the first five months accounted for 6% of the total import volume of pulp, an increase of 4.09 percentage points compared with the same period last year. It is expected that the import volume of waste pulp will continue to increase in 2020 and is expected to increase to 2million tons

in terms of the import volume of dissolved pulp, it has shown a continuous upward trend since 2020, which is mainly affected by the low price of imported dissolved pulp. The main port cost is less than 5000 yuan/ton calculated at 615 dollars/ton of broad-leaved dissolved pulp, and the domestic broad-leaved dissolved pulp is more due to the consideration of global ecological protection. The factory price of the pulp is 5300 yuan/ton, The cost advantage of imported dissolved pulp is far from obvious, and domestic dissolved pulp manufacturers rely on imports. The depreciation of RMB exchange rate intensifies the cost pressure, and the price of domestic pulp has hovered around the profit and loss line of pulp mills. Therefore, the volume of imported dissolved pulp continues to increase. In the first five months of 2020, a total of 1.48 million tons of dissolved pulp were imported, an increase of 12% year-on-year, accounting for 12% of the volume of pulp imports, but a decrease of 0.93% compared with the same period last year

unlike waste pulp, the downstream viscose staple fiber has a tax inclusive acceptance price of 8900 yuan/ton, which is difficult to change. On June 18, the weekly operating rate of the viscose staple fiber industry hovered around 66%. In July, the traditional textile industry was worried about the demand in the off-season, and the price trend in the viscose staple industry may still be relatively passive. It is expected that the import volume of dissolved pulp may be difficult to effectively support. In the long run, the domestic production capacity of viscose staple fiber will increase by 350000 tons this year and next year. There is no obvious incremental support on the demand side of the dissolved pulp market, and the imbalance between supply and demand is difficult to be alleviated for the time being. It is expected that the import volume of dissolved pulp will maintain a relatively stable trend, but the proportion in the import volume of pulp may decline slightly due to the increase in the import volume of waste pulp

the import volume of waste pulp has increased rapidly, and the proportion of wood pulp imports has declined narrowly.

in terms of wood pulp imports, we can see that in the first five months, the import volume of wood pulp was 9.9 million tons, an increase of 15% over the same period last year, accounting for 43% of the total import volume in 2019, under the relatively stable domestic demand, especially under the influence of the plastic ban and the relatively stable shipment of other major countries. In the first five months, the import volume of wood pulp accounted for 81% of the import volume of pulp, a decrease of 3.26 percentage points compared with the same period last year, which was mainly affected by the increase of the import volume of waste paper

on the whole, the proportion of import volume of waste pulp increased significantly in the import volume of pulp, while the proportion of import volume of wood pulp and dissolved pulp decreased

according to zhuochuang's analysis, the waste paper policy has led to a tight supply of waste paper, and it is expected that the import of waste paper pulp will continue to increase, with a significant increase in the proportion of pulp import; Under the influence of the plastic ban, the use of chemical and mechanical pulp will increase with the replacement of white paperboard by white paperboard. In the future, the new capacity of the domestic industry will mostly be the integrated capacity of pulp and paper. The external dependence of imported wood pulp is expected to decrease in the next five years; Due to the weak factors of global supply and demand, the growth of import volume may slow down, but due to the factors of new capacity in the later stage, the proportion of import volume is relatively stable

in 2020, the import volume of wood pulp still maintained a growth trend. From the export situation of major countries, the total export volume of Brazil in the first three weeks of June was nearly 500000 tons, which was within the normal range according to the proportion of exports to China. In the first five months, the export volume of Chile and Brazil to China showed a steady increase compared with the same period last year. It is expected that the import volume of broad-leaved pulp will be relatively stable in the later period; In terms of coniferous pulp, in the first four months of 2020, the volume of coniferous pulp exported by major countries to China decreased by 82800 tons compared with the same period last year, of which Chile and Canada declined significantly. From the current data, the import volume of coniferous pulp in June was relatively stable when many media reported that the supply was stable before the speech, but the import volume of coniferous pulp in July may decline

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