China's photovoltaic crisis triggered by the most

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Us and US Anti investigation triggered China's photovoltaic crisis

recently, seven U.S. photovoltaic enterprises applied for anti-dumping and countervailing investigations on solar cells (panels) exported from China (hereinafter referred to as "double countervailing"). This paper petition has affected almost all domestic photovoltaic production enterprises

following Yingli and Suntech, on October 26, Jingke energy also made a public response to the unfair trade complaint submitted by the United States. Chenkangping, its CEO, said: "we will provide evidence to prove that we have been strictly abiding by international trade standards in the past. Before the incident is resolved, we will continue to cooperate with our customers and partners to ensure the normal operation of our business."

once the case is filed in the United States, will Europe follow suit? The current statistics show that China's PV products sold to Europe and the United States account for nearly 90% of the sales of Chinese PV enterprises. The pessimism has begun to spread under the background of the sharp decline in the price of photovoltaic products and the beginning of overcapacity. A person in the photovoltaic industry said that there is a great possibility for Chinese enterprises to be sued for "double countervailing" (anti infringement and anti subsidy) and put on file

the International Trade Commission is expected to make a ruling on whether to file a case on November 8

price reduction lawsuit

the continuous decline in the price of photovoltaic products since 2011 constitutes the main background of the appeal by American enterprises, while Chinese enterprises have become the scapegoat for this phenomenon. In 2010, the total value of China's photovoltaic products exported to the United States reached 1.4 billion US dollars

led by Solarworld, The American solar energy manufacturing Federation (CASM), which is composed of seven American crystalline silicon solar cell manufacturers, stressed in a statement recently: "The total volume of solar cells and panels exported by China to the United States increased by more than 350 percentage points from 2008 to 2010. In July 2011 alone, the volume of crystalline silicon photovoltaic panels and modules imported by China exceeded that of the whole year of 2010. This growth became the main reason for the 40% decline in global product prices last year."

in fact, China's photovoltaic industry has been connected with the international market since the beginning, and the entire industrial chain of its photovoltaic module products is relatively transparent. According to the above photovoltaic industry insiders, China has formed an open trading market for both raw material polysilicon and solar cells, and the pricing is basically determined by the market conditions

the reason for the frequent decline in the price of photovoltaic products c= (c1+c2+c3+c4)/4 is that after the third quarter of this year, due to the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, the economic outlook is unclear, the implementation of photovoltaic subsidies has not been settled, but the financing difficulty of banks is increasing, which has slowed down the consumer demand in the European market

"under this expectation, some enterprises are eager to ship goods and slash prices. However, this is only the behavior of individual manufacturers and cannot be regarded as dumping behavior." Said the foreign trade manager of a component enterprise in Zhejiang

however, the case of Chinese enterprises is that in the last two photovoltaic exhibitions held in the United States and Germany, Chinese exhibitors successively quoted prices of about US $0.93/w and US $0.86/w. According to the survey of pvinsights, at present, the average quotation of crystalline silicon battery modules is $1.175 per watt

"at that time, I was also at the exhibition in the United States. When the price of $0.86 was quoted, we were a little scared, because the base price we set at that time was $0.97/watt, and the profit was very thin." Said the foreign trade manager

however, he stressed that the low quotation of photovoltaic enterprises would lead to systemic risks and even affect the return of funds in the industry. "If the price drops too fast, the buyer will even reject the goods, leaving the products in the customs. Once the time limit expires, the buyer will buy them back at a low price during the Customs auction, which is a great risk for the export enterprises." Obviously, China is not a "winner" when the price of photovoltaic products drops

"what is more important behind the success is that the prospect of Chinese photovoltaic enterprises setting up plants overseas has also been cast a shadow. In the application document submitted by CASM, it is claimed that the functional orientation of Suntech Arizona, a component assembly company established by Suntech Power in the United States, is to help it achieve low-cost sales

it is worth noting that the appeal documents published on the US International Trade Commission website show that a total of 75 Chinese photovoltaic enterprises were "named" this time. In addition to Yingli, Suntech, Jingke energy, Trinasolar and other listed enterprises, smaller enterprises such as Shangpin and Tianwei are also included. Even Chint solar and Shanshan, whose PV manufacturing is not their main business, are also included in the object of appeal this time

"the wide range of objects of appeal is rare in previous trade friction cases." Zhang Feng, a foreign lawyer, said that due to the different development levels and resource endowments among enterprises, different cost structures may appear in the sampling results. Therefore, the petitioner can "set" the results with his own standards, which greatly increases the possibility of "de facto dumping"

under various unfavorable factors, according to the judgment of the above industry insiders, it is very possible for Chinese enterprises to be sued for "double anti" cases

the risk may spread to Europe

"in fact, the U.S. market now accounts for about 40% of our total shipments, mostly in Europe. Now we are worried about whether the European Union will follow the example of the United States and bring up 'double anti'" The appeal respondent said. It is reported that PV products sold to Europe and the United States account for nearly 90% of the sales of Chinese PV enterprises

ihsisuppli, an international consultancy, said that in 2012, the growth rate of the global PV installed capacity will be less than 20% to withstand the fatal test brought about by severe inflation. This is in sharp contrast to the once rapid growth of PV - the growth rate of global PV in 2010 was as high as 139%. Under the pessimistic expectation that the market has fallen sharply, if the "double anti" big stick of Europe and the United States hits Chinese photovoltaic enterprises again, the consequences will be unimaginable

according to the latest statistics of the silicon industry branch of China Nonferrous Metals Association, the mainstream domestic polysilicon spot price is 350000 yuan/ton, half lower than the price of 700000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year; The price of PV modules has also decreased by 30% in the past three months

corresponding to the sharp drop in prices, there is excess capacity. Data show that the global PV overcapacity in 2011 was 10GW, of which 8GW came from China

by the end of 2011, the production capacity of Changzhou Trinasolar and Yingli new energy will reach 2gw, while that of Wuxi Suntech will be about 2.4gw, and then the production capacity of xiujing'ao will reach 3gw by the end of the year. Once the crazy expansion of Chinese photovoltaic enterprises encounters the "sudden brake" of the European and American markets, many enterprises will dance on the tip of the knife

"China's domestic PV market has not yet shown signs of substantial start-up. Once the overseas market is blocked, PV enterprises will face the situation that goods are difficult to sell and money is difficult to earn. A number of enterprises with weak financial strength will be eliminated first." This is the forecast of the above industry insiders

lishengmao, senior researcher of CIC consulting, pointed out that the domestic photovoltaic industry can counterattack from two aspects in rebutting the US peer's accusation that Chinese photovoltaic enterprises have adopted a low-cost dumping competitive strategy in the US market. "First of all, it fully shows that the decline in the price of Chinese enterprises selling photovoltaic cells and modules in the United States is directly related to the current downturn in the development of the world's photovoltaic industry. It is more a passive behavior for Chinese photovoltaic enterprises to reduce prices in the U.S. market; second, it fully shows the rationality of Chinese enterprises' pricing of photovoltaic cells and modules, such as showing the real cost of products and the price of photovoltaic cells and modules in other countries and regions to relevant parties Sales price, etc. "

The efficiency of light conversion has reached the highest level in the current market.

shenfuxin, Secretary General of Zhejiang solar energy industry association, said that in order to help small and medium-sized enterprises tide over the difficulties, Zhejiang Province will turn these enterprises into an alliance of joint-stock enterprises by the end of the year, "to break through the market with the large leading the small."

at the same time, he also stressed that since the trade litigation filed by American enterprises is also a signal of the opening of trade protection in the international market, some enterprises still investing in the photovoltaic field should carefully assess the market risk

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